Gillibrand leads race for senate chair
LOUDONVILLE — Senator Kirsten Gillibrand continues to hold a commanding lead over Republican challenger Mike Sapraicone in New York’s U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Siena College poll.
Gillibrand, seeking her third full term, leads first-time candidate Sapraicone by 23 points, 54-31%. The poll also revealed strong support for the proposed Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) in the state, with 64% of likely voters in favor and 23% opposed.
Gillibrand’s lead remains substantial, though slightly narrower than in previous elections, where she won by 34 points in 2018 and 46 points in 2012. Despite maintaining a strong overall advantage, Sapraicone has gained some ground among independent voters, who now support him 45-36%, a reversal from Gillibrand’s 13-point lead with independents in August. Among voters under 35, Gillibrand holds a 21-point lead, though her support in this demographic has declined by 41 points over the past month.
ERA amendment
Meanwhile, New Yorkers continue to favor the ERA amendment, which will appear on the November ballot. The proposed amendment seeks to add protections against discrimination based on gender and other characteristics. While Democratic support remains overwhelming at 89%, Republican opposition has narrowed, and independent voters still largely support the measure, although the margin has tightened from 64-23% in August to 49-31% now.
Hochul’s approval ratings at new low
Governor Kathy Hochul’s favorability and job approval ratings have both reached their lowest points since she took office. According to the poll, Hochul’s favorability rating has dropped to 34-54%, down from 39-50% in August. Her job approval rating also fell to 39-56%, a significant decline from 46-49% last month. These figures mark an all-time low for Hochul, whose ratings have struggled to reach 50% favorability in a state where nearly half of voters are Democrats.
The poll also found increasing dissatisfaction with the direction of the state. Only 32% of voters believe New York is on the right track, while 55% say it is headed in the wrong direction, a shift from 39-51% in August. This marks the most pessimistic outlook New Yorkers have expressed about the state’s direction in over a decade.
Harris maintains double-digit lead over Trump
In the national presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris continues to hold a significant lead over former President Donald Trump among New York voters. Harris leads Trump 55-42% in a head-to-head matchup, nearly unchanged from her 53-39% lead in August. In a multi-candidate race, Harris leads by 12 points, 52-40%, with minor party candidates receiving 3% support.
The poll shows that voters trust Harris more than Trump on key issues such as abortion (60-34%), democracy (56-40%), and the economy (52-45%). On immigration, the two candidates are virtually tied, with 48% trusting Harris and 47% trusting Trump. Harris’s favorability rating stands at 53-44%, while Trump’s remains underwater at 39-57%.
According to Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg, “New Yorkers trust Harris more on abortion, democracy, and the economy, but there are significant partisan divides. Democrats overwhelmingly trust Harris, while Republicans largely side with Trump. Among independents, Harris leads on abortion, but Trump holds a significant advantage on other key issues.”
The poll also highlighted shifts among independent voters, who now support Trump over Harris by a 58-34% margin, up from 47-40% last month. Latino voters, however, have swung in favor of Harris, who now leads Trump 56-39% among this demographic, up from a near tie in August.
As the race moves toward Election Day, Greenberg noted that “despite the Democratic convention, debates, and other significant events, the race has remained relatively static. With less than seven weeks to go, New York remains solidly in Harris’s corner, though there are some notable shifts among independents and Latino voters.”
This Siena College poll was conducted from Sept. 11 to 16, with 1,003 likely voters in New York. It has a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points
