LOUDONVILLE — Should former Gov. Andrew Cuomo get into the Democratic Party primary for governor he would give his successor, Gov. Kathy Hochul, the closest race. But, the former lieutenant governor would still beat her former boss by eight points, 38 to 30 percent, according to a recent poll by the Siena College Research Institute.
Hochul holds a dominant lead among registered Democrats on the two who are running for the state’s top spot in June. According to the poll, without Cuomo in the race, she beats New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams by a count of 52 to 12 percent and U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi 52 to 11 percent. With Cuomo in she leads Williams 38 to 7 percent and Suozzi 38 to 10 percent.
“In a three-way race, Hochul has a commanding lead no matter how you look at it,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg. “She leads by 29 points in New York City, 28 points in the downstate suburbs and 56 points upstate. She leads with liberals by 42 points and leads Williams among Black Democrats 39-17 percent.”
Hochul has a 45 to 35 percent overall favorability rating and 67 to 17 percent among Democrats. Williams is favored 24 to 19 percent favorability rating, 40 to 13 percent among Democrats. Suozzi’s favorability rating is 20 to 18 percent with 25 to 16 percent of Democrats viewing him favorably.
Cuomo’s favorability rating is upside down, 32 to 60 percent, but among Democrats he is favored 50 to 42 percent. When asked what Cuomo should do this year, 18 percent of voters said run in the Democratic primary, 10 percent said he should run as independent in November, and 67 percent said he should not run for governor in 2022. Among Democrats, 33 percent say run in primary, 8 percent say run as independent, and 54 percent say don’t run.
“More than half of Democrats don’t want Cuomo to run for governor this year and only one-third say he should run in the primary,” Greenberg said. “Despite all that, Cuomo would be very much in the game — if he decides to put himself in the game.
The two are tied in New York City, while Hochul leads by eight points in the downstate suburbs and 25 points upstate. Cuomo has a two-to-one lead with Black Democrats and Hochul has a comparable lead among white Democrats, while Latinos are closely divided. Hochul leads among men by 15 points but she only leads with women by four points, according to the poll.
On the other side of the aisle, the Republicans are still trying to get their names out there. Lee Zelden has a split favorability rating with 20 percent of voters viewing him favorably and 20 percent unfavorably. Twenty-one percent hold a favorable opinion of Rob Astorino whole 18 percent new him unfavorably. A quarter of the voters view Andrew Giuliani favorably while half do not and 13 percent view Harry Wilson favorably while 8 percent do not.
One quarter of the voters don’t know enough about Giuliani to form an opinion or have no opinion, 62 percent think the same about Astornio, 60 percent think the same about Zeldin and 78 percent don’t know or have no opinion about Wilson.
Bail reform
By a 56 to 30 percent margin, voters say the 2019 bail reform law has been bad for New York. In January 2020, voters thought the law was bad, 49 to 37 percent. Immediately after its passage, in April 2019, voters thought the law would be good for New York by a 55 to 38 percent margin. By a 64 to 24 percent margin, voters say the law has resulted in an increase in crime. An overwhelming majority, 82 to 11 percent, think it should be amended to give judges more discretion to set bail based on the seriousness of the crime or the individual’s criminal record.
On the flip side, by a 56 to 39 percent margin, voters say they’re concerned that giving judges discretion to set bail will result in poor people and people of color being unfairly incarcerated.
“Nearly two-thirds of New Yorkers — including at least 60 percent of Republicans, independents, voters from every region, and white and Latino voters, as well as majorities of Democratic and Black voters — say the bail law has resulted in an increase in crime,” Greenberg said. “There is near-universal agreement that the bail law should be amended to give judicial discretion, while at the same time, a majority are concerned that providing discretion could lead to unjust incarcerations. Good luck, governor and legislators.”
Baseball
Yankee fans outnumber Mets fans by a nearly two-to-one margin, 40 to 21 percent, according to the poll.
“New York City and upstate are solidly behind the Yanks, while the downstate suburbs show a pitcher’s duel with 36 percent supporting the Yanks and 34 percent the Metropolitans,” Greenberg said. “When it comes to playing October baseball and making it to the Series, 45 percent think the Yankees have the better chance to make it, 19 percent say the Mets, 6 percent see a Subway Series possibility, and 7 percent say wait till next year before you see a New York team make the series.”
Odds and Ends
• A majority, 70 to 24 percent, support temporarily suspending the state’s gas tax by 16 cents a gallon.
• By a margin of 48 to 28 percent, voters support a $4 to $6 billion environmental bond.
• By a margin of 50 to 41 percent, voters support giving restaurants the ability to sell alcohol to go.
• Voters oppose, by a 54 to 33 percent margin, a move by the state allowing the first licenses for marijuana retail stores to go to those previously convicted of marijuana-related crimes.
• A strong majority, 67 to 25 percent, support making daylight savings time year-round.
• President Joe Biden’s approval rating inched up to 50 to 46 percent, up from 48 percent last month. His performance rating, through is still negative, 42 to 57 percent but it is up from 36 to 63 percent last month.
• More than two-thirds of New Yorkers, 69 percent, say the worst of the pandemic is over, compared to 18 percent who say the worst is still to come.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin is viewed favorably by 6 percent of voters and unfavorably by 88 percent.
• 42 percent view state Attorney General Letitia James favorability while 27 percent do not
• Half of those polled view U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer favorability while 40 percent do not
• 34 percent view President Donald Trump favorability while 34 percent do not
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has a 70 to 13 percent favorability rating.
“With an 88% unfavorable rating, Putin sets the all-time Siena College poll record, previously held by former Rep. Anthony Weiner, who had an 11 to 80 percent favorability rating in August 2013,” Greenberg said.
The poll was conducted from March 20 to March 24 among 804 New York State registered voters. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.
