With increases in consumer confidence and post-Christmas holiday spending, the economy is showing signs of getting better, according to a recent Siena poll.
The Siena Research Institute is scheduled to issue a report on consumer confidence on Wednesday, Jan. 6, indicating an increase prior to Christmas Day. In that vein, the Retail Council of New York State also issued findings that consumers reported an increase in both pre-Christmas and post-Christmas spending habits compared to 2008.
The Jan. 6 monthly poll measured consumer willingness to spend from Dec. 1 through Christmas Eve, said Don Levy, director of the Siena Research Institute.
However, Levy said, there were still more pessimists than optimists roaming the malls. He said the polls show the consumer confidence index to be around 65.8, nearly 10 points below even, but it is up from 57 in 2008.
Levy said an index score of 75 indicates that the same number of people were willing to spend freely as those who are not, but a comfortable level is well above that.
New York has been creeping upwards, approaching that break even point, he said.
The retail council also reported better grades in 2009 than 2008.
`Week before Christmas, sales were considered a success by 70 percent of surveyed retailers who ultimately gave the 2009 season a ‘B minus’ letter grade, an improvement over the ‘C minus’ they awarded last year,` according to information from the council.
The report states that 74 percent of retailers said 2009 week-before-Christmas sales outshined 2008, and 58 percent of merchants stated after-Christmas sales were better than 2008.
`We could hear the relief in many members’ voices as we conducted this final survey of the season. It wasn’t a year of huge growth but it was still a solid improvement over 2008,` said Retail Council President and Chief Executive Officer James R. Sherin.
Noreen Hiltsley, marketing manager at Colonie Center, said `foot traffic` was up during Christmas week, with some days mirroring Black Friday, the notorious shopping day after Thanksgiving.
She said she does not have actual spending numbers for the stores at the mall, but said community events also helped lure shoppers and likely boosted sales.
Contrary to the actual numbers indicating spending was up, surveys about spending plans for the holiday season showed shoppers would be less willing to splurge this season.
`More people are spending fewer dollars,` Levy said.
A Nov. 24 poll showed that 65 percent of the public only planned on spending $600 on all presents during the holidays.
The Nov. 24 poll showed that consumer spending plans did not change much from the same time in 2008 as in 2009, as both year’s polls indicated that consumers were still gun-shy about spending, Levy said.
More New Yorkers reported plans to spend less in 2008, but a `large majority` indicated they want to both spend the same on each gift and buy the same amount of gifts.
`Three times as many New Yorkers say they are worse off financially this holiday season as compared to last,` said Levy in a statement from the Nov. 24 poll. `But nearly half have found an economic equilibrium, and holding holiday spending constant is part of their enjoyment of the season. Spending more is out this season, but spending as we did last year is, according to consumers, the plan this holiday season.`
As the New Year begins, New Yorkers polled said they expect more improvements to the economy, according to the Siena Research Institute.
A Dec. 21 poll indicated that most people are optimistic for 2010, as `a majority of New York residents believe the economy in general and their personal financial situation will get better over the next year.`
The survey showed 67 percent of people worry about food costs and 53 percent about gas, but Levy said the Manhattan cohort drags the fuel number down due to a large degree of public transportation.
`Nearly one in three New York households report a member getting a second job over the last six months to make ends meet while 23 percent have had a job loss and 26 percent have suffered a cut back in work hours,` the survey concluded.
`Guarded economic optimism is making a comeback. Sixty percent of New Yorkers, up from 49 in August, now expect to be better off financially in a year’s time. And despite ongoing job pressures, more New Yorkers now see the economic glass as half full as compared with those that see it as half empty,` said Levy.
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