More than two weeks from the date Kirsten Gillibrand was sworn into the U.S. Senate, Gov. David Paterson has announced a likely date when her former constituents will have a chance to pick her replacement: Tuesday, March 31, when James Tedisco, R-Schenectady, will face off against Scott Murphy, D-Glens Falls.
Paterson’s Wednesday, Feb. 11, announcement was not a formal proclamation. He said that will come Monday, Feb. 23. State law requires a proclamation 30 to 40 days from the date of the vote. At that point, the parties’ candidates can get their names set on the ballot and independent hopefuls can start collecting signatures.
The announcement comes after much ballyhooing from Republicans about Paterson’s sluggish response. Tedisco, the National Republican Congressional Committee, Young Republicans and the Republican National Committee have all made statements calling on Paterson to call the race immediately, arguing that the 20th Congressional District should have a new leader as soon as possible.
I am thankful that Gov. Paterson toady announced March 31 as the special election date for the 20th Congressional District, and finally ended ‘no taxation without representation’ for this district, which has gone without a voice in Congress for too long, Tedisco said in a statement.
Murphy could not be reached for comment.
A springtime election from Paterson may work to the advantage of his fellow Democrat, who must work to win over voters in the overwhelmingly Republican district. That’s especially true considering that the sway of independent voters is historically a lesser factor in special elections.
`Generally, in special elections you have a lower turnout that you would in the general election, and that may work to the advantage of the Republicans,` said SUNY Albany professor of political science Joe Zimmerman.
With the district’s 196,118 Republicans outnumbering the 125,486 Democrats, having more of the 118,364 unaffiliated voters stay at home works to the GOP’s advantage. And if those who do show don’t know Murphy’s name, it creates an even greater disparity.
A new poll by Public Opinion Strategies (commissioned by the Tedisco campaign) has confirmed what many have suspected ` that name recognition might be the biggest barrier for Murphy to overcome. The poll shows Tedisco leading 50 to 29, with the Assemblyman holding 64 percent name recognition among 400 of the district’s voters polled.
One independent candidate has announced his bid so far: Eric Sundwall, a 41-year-old IT consultant, who hails from Niverville. He’ll have the formidable task of collecting 3,500 valid voter signatures to get on the ballot, a task that is difficult enough over the multiple weeks allowed under the normal election cycle.
Scheduling aside, getting the message out will cost money. At the moment, there is no concrete way to determine the size of the candidates’ respective war chests, or how much money they have spent. The task of collecting and disseminating this information falls upon the Federal Election Commission, as it would in any normal Congressional race. The monitoring body will not set deadlines for disclosures until Paterson schedules the election, though.
With national backing lining up behind the candidates, it is likely that money will be spent hard and fast. At the same time, it’s doubtful that the figures will amount to last fall’s race between Gillibrand and independently wealthy Sandy Treadwell, who collectively burned through about $11.5 million.
`Why so much money was spent last time was the fact Treadwell poured in so much money, and the Democrats wanted to hold on to the seat,` said Zimmerman. `This time, it’s a different situation.`
When it comes to money, the real factor is going to be desire, said Zimmerman. Will Democrats, who hold a healthy majority in the House, be inclined to put their weight into a race against Republicans who see winning back the 20th as a matter of pride?
`This was an embarrassment when they lost the seat, and they want to get it back,` said Zimmerman. `I would anticipate much less spending this time, though if the Democrats want to hold on, they’ll have to match Tedisco.`
Whoever manages to grab the seat will face a 2010 election, as well, as will Gillibrand and Paterson. Democrats, who now have grasped control of the State Senate for full run of the legislature, have a possible secret weapon. They could attempt to redistrict the carefully drawn congressional districts into something more demographically favorable. It’s technically possible to redistrict at any time, according to a 2003 Supreme Court ruling, though the GOP would no doubt move to hinder the move legally.
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