Two months away from Election Day, the race for the 20th Congressional District is awash in allegations of slander, a possible lawsuit and disparate poll results.
Incumbent U.S. Rep. John Sweeney has threatened a lawsuit over MoveOn.org commercials, which focus on contributions made to his campaign by defense contractors. The ads call Sweeney another Republican caught red-handed.
Sweeney’s campaign, in a prepared statement, said the advertisement is defamatory because it implies Sweeney has engaged in illegal activity.
`I haven’t heard anything about it since last week,` said Alison Price, communications director for Democratic challenger Kirsten Gillibrand, last Thursday. She said Gillibrand still had not seen the ads as of that time and pointed out that the Gillibrand campaign and MoveOn.org are two separate entities.
Meanwhile, new poll results unveiled by the Gillibrand campaign show her trailing Sweeney by only eight points, up from the 19-point deficit a Siena College poll showed late last month.
The Global Strategy Group conducted the most recent poll Aug. 29-31 among 410 voters, with a 4.8 percent margin of error. It showed Sweeney leading 47 percent compared to Gillibrand’s 39 percent.
The earlier Siena poll, conducted 10 weeks before Election Day among 628 voters, showed Sweeney with a 53 percent rating compared to 34 percent for Gillibrand, said Steven Greenberg, spokesman for the Siena Research Institute. The poll took place Aug. 21-23 and has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
Sweeney’s camp maintains the Siena poll confirms the race isn’t as close as the Gillibrand contends, and calls the Global Strategy Group poll `a farce.`
In light of the poll results, Price said the Gillibrand camp chooses to focus on the improvements Gillibrand has made during the course of the campaign.
`I think the poll showed 44 percent name recognition for Kirsten Gillibrand. That’s pretty good, considering it was zero percent last year,` said Price, adding that she has every confidence Gillibrand will be able to make up the 19-point gap before Election Day.
Both campaigns have been highly visible, with nearly half of voters saying they had seen or heard a Gillibrand commercial, and 57 percent saying they had seen or heard a Sweeney ad.
The candidates’ main criticisms of their opponents have had little effect on voters. According to the Siena poll, the Sweeney camp’s effort to claim Gillibrand was a longtime New York City resident and a relatively new transplant to the district did not sway many voters, with 64 percent saying it was not a factor in their decision. Twenty-six percent said it would make them more likely to vote for Sweeney, while 8 percent said it would persuade them to vote for Gillibrand. Gillibrand’s argument that Sweeney is too close to President George Bush was slightly more persuasive, but still a nonissue to most voters. A total of 31 percent said it would make them more likely to vote for Gillibrand, 19 percent said it would increase the likelihood they would vote for Sweeney, but 48 percent said it would have no effect.
In the Siena poll, Sweeney leads Gillibrand 73 percent to 13 percent among Republicans, while she leads him 67 percent to 23 percent among Democrats. Among independent voters, Sweeney leads 49 percent to 37 percent. The poll shows Sweeney leading in every region of the district and among all age groups.
The poll focused on six issues: crime, homeland security, taxes, health care, environmental issues and name recognition. On the issues of fighting crime and homeland security, Sweeney was considered likely to do a better job by a 27-point margin. On taxes, the incumbent had a 14-point advantage.
Gillibrand had a five-point lead on health care and a nine-point lead on environmental issues, and both scored similarly on education.
Both candidates have done well raising money: Sweeney has raised $1.6 million to date, and Gillibrand collected $1.2 million, according to their last Federal Election Commission filing in July. “