 editorial, Thu, August 6th, 2009 The Capital District is coming out of its economic slump — or it will in upcoming months — or it won’t — or the slump that occurred/is occurring in the Capital District is/was merely a divot as compared to the enormous pothole that has engulfed the national economy. You pick one. There is a saying that everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but no one is entitled to their own facts. Statistics, however, are unique in the regard that, for the most part, they are facts that are coaxed and massaged to toward a particular end. Consider them facts with good PR agents. Last week, we reported that consumers in the Capital District are feeling a bit more confident, at least according to Siena Research Institute. Consumer confidence surveys are considered a forward-looking economic measurement, which means they can be used to measure economic growth. Siena’s latest poll shows consumers have increased their confidence from a level of 56.0 in the first fiscal quarter, to 64.9 in the second. A few Spotlight readers were kind enough to point out that the Siena poll flies in the face of most national polls that have found consumer confidence slipping for the second straight quarter. Now we enter the realm of the aforementioned “lies, damn lies and statistics,” a phrase introduced by 19th Century British Prime Minister Benjamin Disraeli. It’s true that nationally consumer confidence is down. The Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a monthly release produced by the nonprofit business group The Conference Board since 1967. In late July, they released a report saying the national index stands at 46.6, down from 49.3 in June. But, within the confines of that report are statistics that were broken out regionally. And guess what region was the only one in the survey that showed an increase in consumer confidence? Well, it wasn’t the one that included New York. In the Middle Atlantic states, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York — as The Conference Board breaks them out — confidence slid to 40.8 from 45.9 in June. Does this mean the results of Siena poll are suspect? Not at all. To be fair, the methodology used in each poll is different. The Siena poll sampled 600 New Yorkers; the CCI poll had a sample of 5,000 households nationwide. What do we, as consumers of information as well as retail goods, take away from this? That for the time being we should tread lightly, act cautiously and arm ourselves not only with Disraeli’s saying about statistics, but also with screenwriter William Goldman’s adage about Hollywood: “No one knows anything.” CATEGORY: General Society
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